The FOREX dollar is the best week in three months and the BoFA points to an upside risk

* Graphic: World FX Rates

LONDON, February 5th (Reuters). The dollar was targeting its best weekly return in three months on Friday. This was bolstered by growing confidence that the US economy’s recovery will outperform that of its global competitors.

The dollar index hit a two-month high in Asian trade amid signs of resilience in the labor market, with closely watched numbers for non-agriculture in the US being closely watched later. It withdrew in European trade.

The dollar also renewed its highs against the euro and yen during Asian trading, although the euro made up for losses in European trading.

While the dollar weakened significantly in 2020, it has strengthened since the beginning of this year and confused some. Speculators remain short dollars, and the consensus is that the dollar will weaken this year.

BoFA Global Research said there is a risk of the dollar rising this year as the outlook for risky assets is more difficult.

« Recent market volatility following the GameStop saga has heightened concerns that asset prices have deviated from fundamentals. In any case, the start of the year with record asset prices doesn’t leave much room for further upside, » said BoFA strategists Global Research a note.

« With risk sentiment being the main driver behind the forex market last year, a more challenging outlook for risk assets this year also suggests a less clear exchange rate picture and positive USD risks. »

The dollar index hit 91.60 for the first time since December 1, before dropping to 91.438 by 1158 GMT.

The ad has risen every day this week, showing a weekly increase of 1.1%, the highest since November 1st, after a 0.3% increase the previous week.

The dollar was supported by a surge in longer-term yields on US Treasuries, which were positioned as dealers for massive household spending.

Senate Democrats held a marathon election session to crush Republican opposition to President Joe Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief proposal.

ING strategists said a weakening correlation of the dollar with the equity markets was being felt, although it was difficult to explain. They found that while US Treasury bond yields rose last week, they were accompanied by a corresponding rise in German Bunds.

« And the introduction of vaccinations in the USA certainly looks far more impressive than in Europe, although the growth in the US S & P 500 (+ 3.08%) since the beginning of the year is only slightly above that of the Eurostoxx 50 (+ 2.52 %) lie), « you said.

« Strong short dollar positioning is likely to be a big factor here and again appears to be vulnerable if some of today’s non-farm payroll job data were welcomed. »

Analysts and investors are weighing whether the dollar’s strength this year is a temporary position adjustment after a 7% decline in the dollar index in 2020 or a prolonged move away from dollar pessimism.

There may be a lot of dollar short positions to cover, especially against the yen, on which hedge funds made their biggest bearish bets since 2016.

The dollar rose 0.1% to 105.62 yen on Friday, returning to 105.70 for the first time since October 20.

The euro rose 0.2% to $ 1.1980 after falling to $ 1.1952, a level not seen since December 1.

(Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; editing by Larry King)

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The FOREX dollar is the best week in three months and the BoFA points to an upside risk
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